With the shale gas boom in the US resulting in low Henry Hub prices, some investors are wondering if this would affect global oil demand, given the huge price differential between both energy sources. If so, this may impact oil prices and hence capital expenditure in the offshore oil industry, affecting companies in the sector. In this report, we contend that the US shale gas “revolution” has not, and is unlikely to bring down oil prices in a significant way any time soon. Assuming the global economy does not fall into a deep recession, the worry should still be on oil prices being on the high side. We maintain our Overweight rating on the oil and gas sector, and we expect continued good performance from Sembcorp Marine [BUY, FV: S$6.09], Keppel Corp [BUY, FV: S$13.34], Ezion [BUY, FV: S$1.53] and STX OSV [BUY, FV: S$2.00].
Shale gas boom to affect offshore oil capex? Unlikely
With the shale gas boom resulting in low Henry Hub prices, some investors are wondering if this would affect global oil demand in the future, given the huge price differential between both energy sources. If so, this may impact oil prices and capital expenditure in the offshore oil industry. While we believe that shale gas holds promise to change energy dynamics in the long run, it is unlikely to bring down oil prices in a significant way any time soon.
Limited to the US so far; only has one export terminal today
The shale gas revolution has been limited to the US so far, and the industry has been slow to take off in Europe and China. Time will also be needed for infrastructure to be built for the gas to be shipped out of the US, which has only one export terminal today.
Coal may be losing market share in the US
The question then is whether shale gas will displace oil in the US. We note that 70% of total petroleum consumption was used in the transportation sector in 2011, and do not think that natural gas will substitute petroleum as a transport fuel in the medium term. Coal, however, may lose market share as an energy source as natural gas is increasingly used in electric power generation.
Focus should still be on the global economy
The main determinant of oil prices is still the health of the global economy. Assuming the global economy does not fall into a deep recession, the worry should be oil prices being on the high side. We maintain our Overweight rating on the oil and gas sector, and we expect continued good performance from Sembcorp Marine [BUY, FV: S$6.09], Keppel Corp [BUY, FV: S$13.34], Ezion [BUY, FV: S$1.53] and STX OSV [BUY, FV: S$2.00].
With the shale gas boom resulting in low Henry Hub prices, some investors are wondering if this would affect global oil demand in the future, given the huge price differential between both energy sources. If so, this may impact oil prices and capital expenditure in the offshore oil industry. While we believe that shale gas holds promise to change energy dynamics in the long run, it is unlikely to bring down oil prices in a significant way any time soon.
Limited to the US so far; only has one export terminal today
The shale gas revolution has been limited to the US so far, and the industry has been slow to take off in Europe and China. Time will also be needed for infrastructure to be built for the gas to be shipped out of the US, which has only one export terminal today.
Coal may be losing market share in the US
The question then is whether shale gas will displace oil in the US. We note that 70% of total petroleum consumption was used in the transportation sector in 2011, and do not think that natural gas will substitute petroleum as a transport fuel in the medium term. Coal, however, may lose market share as an energy source as natural gas is increasingly used in electric power generation.
Focus should still be on the global economy
The main determinant of oil prices is still the health of the global economy. Assuming the global economy does not fall into a deep recession, the worry should be oil prices being on the high side. We maintain our Overweight rating on the oil and gas sector, and we expect continued good performance from Sembcorp Marine [BUY, FV: S$6.09], Keppel Corp [BUY, FV: S$13.34], Ezion [BUY, FV: S$1.53] and STX OSV [BUY, FV: S$2.00].
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