Friday 19 April 2013

Mapletree Logistics Trust

OCBC on 18 Apr 2013

Mapletree Logistics Trust’s (MLT) FY13 DPU increased by 2.5% to 6.86 S cents from 6.69 S cents achieved in the four quarters ending 31 Mar 2012. This is relatively in line with our/consensus full-year DPU forecasts of 6.93/7.0 S cents. Portfolio occupancy stayed largely healthy at 98.5% (99.2% in 3Q), while positive rental reversions of 14% were achieved (17% in 3Q), mainly from leases in Singapore and Hong Kong. Management highlighted that it has enjoyed a strong 93% success rate for leases renewed/replaced in the year, and the portfolio is expected to remain resilient going forward given its long weighted average lease term of 5.3 years and strong enquiries levels. On its investment front, MLT expects to acquire at least two assets in 2013, possibly in Singapore and Malaysia, while actively pursuing several BTS/development projects opportunities. We are maintaining our HOLD rating and S$1.34 fair value on MLT.

Firm 4QFY13 results as expected
Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT) reported 4QFY13 NPI of S$65.5m and total amount distributable of S$46.7m, up 6.7% and 11.2% YoY respectively. The growth was mainly attributable to an enlarged portfolio and improved performance from existing assets. DPU for the quarter was up 1.8% YoY to 1.73 S cents after accounting for S$4.6m due to its perpetual securities holders. Excluding the investment gains seen in previous year, we note that DPU would have improved by 3.6%. For FY13, DPU increased by 2.5% to 6.86 S cents from 6.69 S cents achieved in the four quarters ending 31 Mar 2012. This is relatively in line with our/consensus full-year DPU forecasts of 6.93/7.0 S cents. 

Operationally sound
Portfolio occupancy stayed largely healthy at 98.5% (99.2% in 3Q) despite a dip in occupancy rates in Singapore and South Korea, while positive rental reversions of 14% were achieved (17% in 3Q), mainly from leases in Singapore and Hong Kong. Management highlighted that it has enjoyed a strong 93% success rate for leases renewed/replaced in the year, and the portfolio is expected to remain resilient going forward given its long weighted average lease term of 5.3 years and strong enquiries levels.

Maintain HOLD
MLT’s portfolio asset value was up by a marginal 0.2% YoY to S$4.07b in spite of a S$20.3m revaluation gain and ~S$205m acquisition and capital expenditure, no thanks to a weaker JPY. Nevertheless, as a substantial portion (~70%) of its borrowings is JPY-denominated, MLT’s aggregate leverage improved by 1.8ppt to 34.1% on lower translated JPY borrowings. Impact to distributable income is expected to be limited in FY14 as 85% of the income is hedged into/derived in SGD. On its investment front, MLT expects to acquire at least two assets in 2013, possibly in Singapore and Malaysia, while actively pursuing several BTS/development projects opportunities. We are maintaining our HOLD rating and S$1.34 fair value on MLT.

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