Monday, 3 June 2013

Swiber Holdings

OCBC on 31 May 2013

According to Upstream, Swiber Holdings is preparing to invest in its first large deep-water offshore construction vessel for its fleet. In particular, the company is understood to have expressed its intention to purchase a vessel similar to Ezra’s Lewek Constellation. The capex of US$400-500m is huge, but considering that the unit is expected to take up to three years to build and the group has not announced any additional substantial capex plans, this may be a manageable purchase. Meanwhile, we would continue to monitor the group’s cashflow from operations. Pending an official statement from the company, we do not see this as a surprise, as Swiber has expressed its intentions to expand its operations into deeper waters.
Maintain BUY with S$0.86 fair value estimate.

Looking to build deep-water offshore construction vessel?
According to Upstream , Swiber Holdings is preparing to invest in its first large deep-water offshore construction vessel for its fleet. In particular, the company is understood to have expressed its intention to purchase a 4000-tonne crane vessel equipped with S-lay, reel lay and flex-lay systems. The unit is expected to take up to three years to build, suggesting delivery will take place by mid-2015 at the earliest.

Comparison with Ezra’s Lewek Constellation
The 188m DP3 heavy-lift pipelay vessel will come with a 10-point mooring system and be powered by two azimuth thrusters, five retractable thrusters and two bow thrusters. We compare it with Ezra’s Lewek Constellation (estimated cost close to US$500m, after including variation orders), and based on current information, we note that the main differences are a larger crane (4000 ton vs 3000 ton) and a slightly longer vessel. 

Huge capex of US$400-500m
Upstream’s sources state that at least eight yards have been shortlisted for the tender, which will see the award of a contract valued at between US$400-500m. The contending yards are said to include Keppel Shipyard, Sembawang Shipyard, ASL Shipyard, Dubai Drydocks World, and four other Chinese yards. The capex required for Swiber is huge, but considering that the unit is expected to take about three years to build and the group has not announced any additional substantial capex plans, this may be a manageable purchase. Meanwhile, we would continue to monitor the group’s cashflow from operations. 

Setting its sights on deepwater
Pending an official statement from the company, we do not see this as a surprise, as Swiber has expressed its intentions to expand its current shallow water operations into deeper waters. In order to achieve this, it will have to build up its deep-water vessel fleet. Though the group’s share price has risen by about 17% since its results release in mid May, we still see a 19% upside potential. Maintain BUY with S$0.86 fair value estimate.

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