Tuesday, 5 November 2013

CDL Hospitality Trusts

OCBC on 30 Oct 2013

CDLHT has reported 3Q13 results that are generally in-line with ours and the street’s expectations. 3Q13 revenue declined 0.8% YoY to S$35.9m. RevPAR for CDLHT’s Singapore hotels had declined 6.4% YoY, driven by a 5.6% drop in average room rate. As we had anticipated, the rate of RevPAR decline was less in 3Q13 than over 1H13, which saw RevPAR fall 8.1% on the back of increased supply in the sector. 3Q13 net property income fell 1.7% YoY to S$33.0m. 3Q13 DPU is 2.64 S cents (down 2.9% YoY), bringing 9M13 DPU to 8.05 S cents, versus ours and the street’s FY13 forecasts of 10.4 S cents and 11.1 S cents respectively. We maintain a fair value estimate of S$1.83 on CDLHT and BUY rating.

In-line results
CDLHT has reported 3Q13 results that are generally in-line with ours and the street’s expectations. 3Q13 revenue declined 0.8% YoY to S$35.9m. 3Q13 net property income fell 1.7% YoY to S$33.0m. 3Q13 DPU is 2.64 S cents (down 2.9% YoY), bringing 9M13 DPU to 8.05 S cents, versus ours and the street’s FY13 forecasts of 10.4 S cents and 11.1 S cents respectively.

SG RevPAR for 3Q13 falls 6.4% YoY
RevPAR for CDLHT’s Singapore hotels had declined 6.4% YoY, driven by a 5.6% drop in average room rate. As we had anticipated, the rate of RevPAR decline was less in 3Q13 than over 1H13, which saw RevPAR fall 8.1% on the back of increased supply in the sector and softness in corporate travel budgets due to a poor global economy. Average occupancy remained fell only 0.7 ppt to 87.6% as the Singapore hotels compensated for the weaker corporate demand with leisure bookings, which were secured at lower rates. For the first 27 days of Oct, RevPAR for CDLHT’s Singapore hotels fell 4.2% YoY. According to CDLHT, the supply of hotels rooms in Singapore is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.9% from end 2012 till end 2015, reaching 61,265 rooms. 

AUD hits Australia contribution
The slowing Australian economy and mining sector affected the performance of the hotels in Brisbane and Perth, with the drag expected to continue for the near term. Fixed rate contribution from the Australian hotels was S$3.9m, down ~11% from the S$4.4m in 3Q12, due to the weakening of the AUD versus the SGD. The Maldives registered visitor arrivals growth of 17.3% YoY for 7M13. Gross revenue reported for Angsana Velavaru in 3Q13 comprises the prorated minimum amount of US$500k per month. The excess income will only be recognized in the 4Q13 results once the full year performance of the property is determined.

FV of S$1.83
We maintain a fair value estimate of S$1.83 on CDLHT and BUY rating.

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