Thursday, 7 May 2015

CapitaLand

OCBC on 4 May 2015

CAPL’s 1Q15 PATMI decreased 11.8% YoY to S$161.3m mostly due to the absence of profit contributions from Australand and a S$19.1m divestment gain recognized in the same quarter last year. We judge this set of results to be within expectations and 1Q15 revenues, gross profit and PATMI now constitute 23.5, 26.9% and 21.7% of our full year forecasts, respectively. In China, CAPL sold a healthy 1,306 homes in 1Q15 – up 11% YoY – while total sales values increased 68% to RMB2.2b. In Singapore, the group sold 69 domestic residential units in 1Q15 (versus 34 units in 1Q14), most of which were from Urban Resort Condominium and Marine Blue. 1Q15 same-mall NPI for the group’s retail business in Singapore and China grew 4.8% and 7.6%, respectively, with Chinese shopper traffic also growing 5.2% over the period. We update our valuation model with firmer home ASPs in China and our fair value increases marginally from S$3.98 to S$4.07 (25% discount to RNAV). Maintain BUY.

PATMI from continuing operations up 9.4% YoY
CapitaLand’s (CAPL) 1Q15 PATMI decreased 11.8% YoY to S$161.3m mostly due to the absence of profit contributions from Australand and a S$19.1m divestment gain recognized in the same quarter last year. Excluding discontinued business segments, PATMI from continuing operations in 1Q15 increased 9.4% YoY with stronger contributions from the increased stake in CapitaMalls Asia and portfolio gains, partially offset by lower revaluation gains from investment properties. In terms of the topline, 1Q15 revenues increased 49.4% to S$915.0m due to higher rental income, the consolidation of CapitaLand Township (which became a wholly-owned subsidiary in 1Q15) and higher contributions from residential projects in Singapore and Vietnam. We judge this set of results to be within expectations and 1Q15 revenues, gross profit and PATMI now constitute 23.5, 26.9% and 21.7% of our full year forecasts, respectively.

Healthy launch performances in China
In China, CAPL sold a healthy 1,306 homes in 1Q15 – up 11% YoY – while total sales values increased 68% to RMB2.2b. Management reported healthy responses from recent project launches in Hangzhou, Shanghai and Xi’an, and has 7.6k units that are launch-ready, of which a third are from Tier 1 cities. In Singapore, the group sold 69 domestic residential units in 1Q15 (versus 34 units in 1Q14), most of which were from Urban Resort Condominium and Marine Blue. Two of the group’s completed projects, Urban Resort and The Interlace, which are up for QC penalties are 95% and 84% sold, respectively and we do not expect extension charges of ~S$3.7m in this fiscal year to have a significant impact. In addition, we highlight that the group’s exposure to the domestic residential segment is fairly limited at ~7.8% of total assets. 1Q15 same-mall NPI for the group’s retail business in Singapore and China grew 4.8% and 7.6%, respectively, with Chinese shopper traffic also growing 5.2% over the period. We update our valuation model with firmer home ASPs in China and our fair value increases marginally from S$3.98 to S$4.07 (25% discount to RNAV). Maintain BUY.

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