Tuesday, 11 August 2015

Noble Group

UOBKayhian on 11 Aug 2015

Reports net profits of US$63m in 2Q15 and US$169m in 1H15 which accounts for 45% of our earnings estimate, but 33% of consensus.

FY15F PE (x): 7.3
FY16F PE (x): 6.3

Results were not the main focus. Noble reported a net profit of US$63m (-4.8% yoy, - 41.3% qoq) and 1H15 net profit of US$169m (-22.4% yoy). 1H15 accounted for 45% of our earnings but only 33% of consensus expectation. 2H15 should see higher sales volume which would help Noble catch up in terms of earnings to meet our expectation. Maintain HOLD with lower target price of S$0.65 (previously: S$1.05) after we trim our PB valuation from 1.0x BV to 0.6x BV (lowest PB during 2008/09 financial crisis was 0.5x BV). We lowered our target PB in view of the bearish commodity cycle and the time it will take to rebuild investors’ confidence and interest. We reckon that Noble’s management has been putting in a lot of effort to engage with stakeholders and to engage another audit firm to review its MTM valuation. However, it will still take time to restore market confidence. Entry price: S$0.56.

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