Uobkayhian on 26 Aug 2014
FY14F PE (x): 20.4
FY15F PE (x): 17.0
Still looking for its new groove. We expect Star Cruises will post a sequentially
narrower but continued operating loss in the seasonally stronger 2H14 as it continues
to fine-tune its fleet deployment strategy in preparation for the delivery of its two
newbuilds costing around US$900m each (scheduled for Oct 16 and Oct 17). The
strategy of deploying more capacity in the Hong Kong-China market raises costs
significantly which currently outweighs the revenue enhancement.
Maintain HOLD with a lower target price of US$0.40 (from US$0.43), after applying a
narrower 15% discount (previously 20%) to our RNAV/share, which already accounts
for muted earnings at Star Cruises (valuing Star Cruises’ at around the book value of
its vessels). Our target price implies 9.3x 2014F EV/EBITDA (adjusted for GENHK’s
stakes in Travellers and NCL). We note the valuation gap between our RNAV and the
implied market values has narrowed substantially with Travelers’ share price having
fallen 29% since its IPO.
Showing posts with label Genting HK. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Genting HK. Show all posts
Tuesday, 26 August 2014
Wednesday, 30 July 2014
Genting Hong Kong
UOBKayhian on 2014
FY14F PE (x): 16.5
FY15F PE (x): 16.4
NCL’s 2Q14 results were broadly in line with our expectations as lower-than- expected
costs made up for a slight shortfall in revenue. 2Q14 core net profit rose 101% yoy to
US$121m, lifted by a 20% increase in capacity (from the delivery of Norwegian
Breakway in Apr 13 and Norwegian Getaway in Jan 14), an improvement in occupancy,
and normalised interest costs (2013 included US$70m in debt refinancing charges post-
IPO in 1Q13). 1H14 EBITDA of US$347m (+51.4% yoy) made up 41% of our full-year
forecast, within expectations, considering the annual seasonal peak in 3Q.
Maintain HOLD and US$0.43 target price, or 9.5x 2014F EV/EBITDA, as we do not
expect near-term catalysts for now. Our target price applies a 12% discount to our
SOTP valuation.
FY14F PE (x): 16.5
FY15F PE (x): 16.4
NCL’s 2Q14 results were broadly in line with our expectations as lower-than- expected
costs made up for a slight shortfall in revenue. 2Q14 core net profit rose 101% yoy to
US$121m, lifted by a 20% increase in capacity (from the delivery of Norwegian
Breakway in Apr 13 and Norwegian Getaway in Jan 14), an improvement in occupancy,
and normalised interest costs (2013 included US$70m in debt refinancing charges post-
IPO in 1Q13). 1H14 EBITDA of US$347m (+51.4% yoy) made up 41% of our full-year
forecast, within expectations, considering the annual seasonal peak in 3Q.
Maintain HOLD and US$0.43 target price, or 9.5x 2014F EV/EBITDA, as we do not
expect near-term catalysts for now. Our target price applies a 12% discount to our
SOTP valuation.
Wednesday, 8 January 2014
Genting Hong Kong
UOBKayhian on 8 Jan 2014
FY13F PE (x): 18.2
FY14F PE (x): 15.2
Downgrade to HOLD with a lower target price of US$0.45 amid an increasingly
competitive casino gaming landscape in the Philippines and as its Asian cruise
operations embarks on a capacity expansion programme. Our target price applies a 15%
discount to its SOTP valuation, and implies adjusted 2014F EV/EBITDA of 8.6x (taking
into account GENHK’s stakes in Travellers and NCL Corp).
Excitement fizzles in Manila... GENHK’s share price has been sidelined since 45%-
owned Travellers, which operates Resorts World Manila (RWM), was listed on the
Philippines Stock Exchange. Travellers’ share price has since eased about 7% from its
IPO price of P11.28. Travellers’ 2H13 earnings are likely to fall short of 1H13’s run
despite the traditional seasonal strength due to an extended streak of poor luck since
3Q13. We reckon RWM’s market share may ease qoq relative to its sole competitor,
Solaire, in the integrated resort and- casino (IRC) space.
FY13F PE (x): 18.2
FY14F PE (x): 15.2
Downgrade to HOLD with a lower target price of US$0.45 amid an increasingly
competitive casino gaming landscape in the Philippines and as its Asian cruise
operations embarks on a capacity expansion programme. Our target price applies a 15%
discount to its SOTP valuation, and implies adjusted 2014F EV/EBITDA of 8.6x (taking
into account GENHK’s stakes in Travellers and NCL Corp).
Excitement fizzles in Manila... GENHK’s share price has been sidelined since 45%-
owned Travellers, which operates Resorts World Manila (RWM), was listed on the
Philippines Stock Exchange. Travellers’ share price has since eased about 7% from its
IPO price of P11.28. Travellers’ 2H13 earnings are likely to fall short of 1H13’s run
despite the traditional seasonal strength due to an extended streak of poor luck since
3Q13. We reckon RWM’s market share may ease qoq relative to its sole competitor,
Solaire, in the integrated resort and- casino (IRC) space.
Monday, 26 March 2012
Genting Hong Kong
Kim Eng on 26 Mar 2012
Record profit confirms turnaround. Genting Hong Kong (GenHK) reported FY11 revenue of US$515.5m (+28.9% YoY) with a record net profit of US$182.2m (+120.5% YoY). The results met our expectations and were far ahead of consensus. They confirmed the company’s turnaround on all fronts. Norwegian Cruise Line (NCL) delivered a record EBITDA of US$506.0m. Resorts World Manila (RWM) performed well in its second year of operation with Travellers International posting EBITDA of US$214.4m, more than double last year’s US$102.0m. Reiterate Buy with the target price raised to US$0.53.
Asian cruise strategy a success. GenHK has been fine-tuning its Asian cruise strategy and its fleet rationalisation has produced positive results. What came as a pleasant surprise was the 42.6% improvement in gaming revenue as a result of these actions. We believe that the routes to Hong Kong and Taiwan have spawned this increase.
NCL bookings on the rise again. Net yield for NCL inched up by 3% to US$173.4 for FY11. The company will also take delivery of two new vessels in 1H13 and 1H14, which would add about 15% each to its existing capacity. This should lift EBITDA to US$677m in FY14F, based on our forecast. The Costa Concordia cruise ship incident had had only a short-lived adverse impact on the industry and we understand that booking trends have picked up after a negative knee-jerk reaction.
Positive factors bode well for Manila gaming business. Average daily visitors to RWM reached 19,500 last year, from about 12,700 the previous year. Travellers thus saw an 85.3% YoY surge in revenue for FY11. Moreover, key macro data in the Philippines are positive, with January 2012 tourist arrivals hitting above 400,000 for the first time. We understand that most VIPs currently are locals and there should be ample room to build up on overseas VIP volume. Ongoing developments in RWM should drive visitor volume upwards.
Reiterate Buy, raise target price to US$0.53. We raise our SOTP-based target price to US$0.53 as we increase our EBITDA forecasts for Star Cruises and NCL by 13% and 2%, respectively. Reiterate Buy.
Record profit confirms turnaround. Genting Hong Kong (GenHK) reported FY11 revenue of US$515.5m (+28.9% YoY) with a record net profit of US$182.2m (+120.5% YoY). The results met our expectations and were far ahead of consensus. They confirmed the company’s turnaround on all fronts. Norwegian Cruise Line (NCL) delivered a record EBITDA of US$506.0m. Resorts World Manila (RWM) performed well in its second year of operation with Travellers International posting EBITDA of US$214.4m, more than double last year’s US$102.0m. Reiterate Buy with the target price raised to US$0.53.
Asian cruise strategy a success. GenHK has been fine-tuning its Asian cruise strategy and its fleet rationalisation has produced positive results. What came as a pleasant surprise was the 42.6% improvement in gaming revenue as a result of these actions. We believe that the routes to Hong Kong and Taiwan have spawned this increase.
NCL bookings on the rise again. Net yield for NCL inched up by 3% to US$173.4 for FY11. The company will also take delivery of two new vessels in 1H13 and 1H14, which would add about 15% each to its existing capacity. This should lift EBITDA to US$677m in FY14F, based on our forecast. The Costa Concordia cruise ship incident had had only a short-lived adverse impact on the industry and we understand that booking trends have picked up after a negative knee-jerk reaction.
Positive factors bode well for Manila gaming business. Average daily visitors to RWM reached 19,500 last year, from about 12,700 the previous year. Travellers thus saw an 85.3% YoY surge in revenue for FY11. Moreover, key macro data in the Philippines are positive, with January 2012 tourist arrivals hitting above 400,000 for the first time. We understand that most VIPs currently are locals and there should be ample room to build up on overseas VIP volume. Ongoing developments in RWM should drive visitor volume upwards.
Reiterate Buy, raise target price to US$0.53. We raise our SOTP-based target price to US$0.53 as we increase our EBITDA forecasts for Star Cruises and NCL by 13% and 2%, respectively. Reiterate Buy.
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