OCBC on 3 Oct 2012
3Q12 flash estimates for the URA Residential Price Index showed a sustained increase of 0.5% QoQ (versus 0.4% in 2Q12), cumulating to a total rise of 0.9% year to date. Again, the most bullish action was in the mass-market segment (Outside Central Region) where prices increased 1.0% in 3Q12 (versus 0.5% in 2Q12). In addition, we also saw a 0.2% and 0.7% price increase in the high-end (Core Central Region) and mid-tier (Rest of Central Region) segments, respectively. We believe an environment of ample liquidity would continue to drive residential demand and prices, particularly after QE3 and consequently increased visibility of low interest rates further out to 2015. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on residential developers. Our top pick is City Developments [FV: S$13.18, BUY].
3Q12 flash estimate shows 0.5% increase
3Q12 flash estimates for the URA Residential Price Index, for non-landed private residential properties, showed a sustained increase of 0.5% QoQ (versus 0.4% in 2Q12), cumulating to a total rise of 0.9% year to date. Again, the most bullish action was in the mass-market segment (Outside Central Region) where prices increased 1.0% in 3Q12 (versus 0.5% in 2Q12). In addition, we also saw a 0.2% and 0.7% price increase for residential properties in the high-end (Core Central Region) and mid-tier (Rest of Central Region) segments, respectively.
Take-up rates still at healthy levels
Take-up rates of new private residential units remained buoyant in 3Q12, particularly for the mass-market segment and smaller units at price quantums below S$1m levels. Projects that sold well during the quarter were Parc Centros (median selling price of ~S$920 psf) and Parc Olympia (~S$870 psf). V on Shenton, a project in the financial district, also saw a good take-up rate at median prices of around S$2,000 psf.
Trend of falling total transaction values
From caveats lodged, we see a trend of falling total transaction values since 2010, though the number of total units sold each year has been stable. This is mainly due to the decreasing average sizes of units sold. According to CBRE, the median size of units sold decreased from 1,044 sq ft in 2010 to 893 sq ft in 2011, and finally 840 sq ft for 2012 to date. We believe this is because developers are reducing the sizes of units offered to the market, even for three or four bedroom units, to keep affordability levels under the S$1m price levels.
Maintain OVERWEIGHT on sector
We believe an environment of ample liquidity would continue to drive residential demand and prices, particularly after QE3 and consequently increased visibility of low interest rates further out to 2015. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on residential developers. Our top pick is City Developments [FV: S$13.18, BUY] .
3Q12 flash estimates for the URA Residential Price Index, for non-landed private residential properties, showed a sustained increase of 0.5% QoQ (versus 0.4% in 2Q12), cumulating to a total rise of 0.9% year to date. Again, the most bullish action was in the mass-market segment (Outside Central Region) where prices increased 1.0% in 3Q12 (versus 0.5% in 2Q12). In addition, we also saw a 0.2% and 0.7% price increase for residential properties in the high-end (Core Central Region) and mid-tier (Rest of Central Region) segments, respectively.
Take-up rates still at healthy levels
Take-up rates of new private residential units remained buoyant in 3Q12, particularly for the mass-market segment and smaller units at price quantums below S$1m levels. Projects that sold well during the quarter were Parc Centros (median selling price of ~S$920 psf) and Parc Olympia (~S$870 psf). V on Shenton, a project in the financial district, also saw a good take-up rate at median prices of around S$2,000 psf.
Trend of falling total transaction values
From caveats lodged, we see a trend of falling total transaction values since 2010, though the number of total units sold each year has been stable. This is mainly due to the decreasing average sizes of units sold. According to CBRE, the median size of units sold decreased from 1,044 sq ft in 2010 to 893 sq ft in 2011, and finally 840 sq ft for 2012 to date. We believe this is because developers are reducing the sizes of units offered to the market, even for three or four bedroom units, to keep affordability levels under the S$1m price levels.
Maintain OVERWEIGHT on sector
We believe an environment of ample liquidity would continue to drive residential demand and prices, particularly after QE3 and consequently increased visibility of low interest rates further out to 2015. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on residential developers. Our top pick is City Developments [FV: S$13.18, BUY] .
No comments:
Post a Comment