We believe that FY13F DPU yield for Fortune REIT (FRT) is attractive at 5.0%, especially compared to that of its closest HK peer, The LINK REIT, which has a consensus FY13F DPU yield of 3.7% (Bloomberg). It should be noted that HK’s 10-year government bond yield is 0.56%, versus 1.33% for Singapore. This means that the average FY13F DPU yield for 5.5% for local retail REITs implies a spread of 4.2%, tighter than the 4.4% spread for FRT. At an NAV per unit of HK$8.32, FRT is trading at a P/B of 0.80x, at a good discount to the overall local retail S-REITs' P/B of 1.15x and The LINK’s P/B of 1.52x. Adjusting our DDM model assumptions, which were previously conservative, we raise our fair value from HK$6.63 to HK$7.28 and maintain our BUY call on FRT. FRT is one of our top two picks among the retail S-REITs.
Impressive 9M12
To recap, 9M12 DPU grew 23.1% YoY, the highest rate of growth in the REIT’s nine-year history. The performance was due to a three-pronged growth strategy: active lease management, yield-accretive acquisitions (e.g. FRT acquired Provident Square and Belvedere Square in mid-Feb) and asset enhancement initiatives with ROIs of at least 15%. Given stable retail space supply in the vicinity of its malls, we believe FRT has a positive operational outlook.
Yield compression versus physical property
As first analysed in our report dated 8 Oct 2012, FRT can see further dividend yield compression from unit price increases. On average, for the period 2003-2011 (excluding 2008), FRT's DPU yield has been at 1.4x relative to the yield for HK physical retail property. Based on 1.4x, and given that the 2012 average annualized yield for physical retail property in HK is 2.7% (based on 9M12), this implies a possible yield of ~3.8% for FRT's FY12F. At FRT's current unit price, FY12F DPU yield is 4.9%. As such, there is potential upside for FRT’s unit price.
Yield compression versus peers
We believe that FRT's FY13F DPU yield is attractive at 5.0%, especially compared to that of its closest HK peer, The LINK REIT, which has a consensus FY13F DPU yield of 3.7% (Bloomberg). It should be noted that HK’s 10-year government bond yield is 0.56%, versus 1.33% for Singapore. This means that the average FY13F DPU yield of 5.5% for local retail REITs implies a spread of 4.2%, tighter than the 4.4% spread for FRT. At an NAV per unit of HK$8.32, FRT is trading at a P/B of 0.80x, at a good discount to the overall local retail S-REITs' P/B of 1.15x and The LINK’s P/B of 1.52x. Gearing is low at 24.6%.
Raise FV to HK$7.28
Adjusting our DDM model assumptions, which were previously conservative, we raise our fair value from HK$6.63 to HK$7.28 and maintain our BUY call on FRT. FRT is one of our top two picks among the retail S-REITs.
To recap, 9M12 DPU grew 23.1% YoY, the highest rate of growth in the REIT’s nine-year history. The performance was due to a three-pronged growth strategy: active lease management, yield-accretive acquisitions (e.g. FRT acquired Provident Square and Belvedere Square in mid-Feb) and asset enhancement initiatives with ROIs of at least 15%. Given stable retail space supply in the vicinity of its malls, we believe FRT has a positive operational outlook.
Yield compression versus physical property
As first analysed in our report dated 8 Oct 2012, FRT can see further dividend yield compression from unit price increases. On average, for the period 2003-2011 (excluding 2008), FRT's DPU yield has been at 1.4x relative to the yield for HK physical retail property. Based on 1.4x, and given that the 2012 average annualized yield for physical retail property in HK is 2.7% (based on 9M12), this implies a possible yield of ~3.8% for FRT's FY12F. At FRT's current unit price, FY12F DPU yield is 4.9%. As such, there is potential upside for FRT’s unit price.
Yield compression versus peers
We believe that FRT's FY13F DPU yield is attractive at 5.0%, especially compared to that of its closest HK peer, The LINK REIT, which has a consensus FY13F DPU yield of 3.7% (Bloomberg). It should be noted that HK’s 10-year government bond yield is 0.56%, versus 1.33% for Singapore. This means that the average FY13F DPU yield of 5.5% for local retail REITs implies a spread of 4.2%, tighter than the 4.4% spread for FRT. At an NAV per unit of HK$8.32, FRT is trading at a P/B of 0.80x, at a good discount to the overall local retail S-REITs' P/B of 1.15x and The LINK’s P/B of 1.52x. Gearing is low at 24.6%.
Raise FV to HK$7.28
Adjusting our DDM model assumptions, which were previously conservative, we raise our fair value from HK$6.63 to HK$7.28 and maintain our BUY call on FRT. FRT is one of our top two picks among the retail S-REITs.
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