CDL’s 2Q13 PATMI increased 48% YoY to S$203.8m, mostly due to disposal gains from an industrial site at 100G Pasir Panjang. 1H13 PATMI now cumulates to S$341.5m which makes up 49% of our full year forecast. We judge this to be mostly in line with our expectations. In 2H13, CDL is expected to launch the 380-unit Lush Acres EC project and a mixed development at MacPherson/Upper Serangoon Rd (266 residential and 28 retail units). Due to recent property curbs, the group expects stronger headwinds and moderating transaction volumes and prices in 2H13. In addition, management indicates that a situation of residential oversupply could ensue in 2014. While navigating a more onerous risk-reward landscape ahead, we believe that CDL could take a more measured approach to land-banking over FY13-14. Maintain HOLD with a lower fair value estimate of S$11.38 (20% RNAV disc.), versus S$12.04 previously, mainly due to a higher discount to RNAV reflecting a dimmer residential sales outlook.
2Q13 results within expectations
CDL’s 2Q13 PATMI increased 48% YoY to S$203.8m, mostly due to disposal gains from an industrial site at 100G Pasir Panjang. 1H13 PATMI now cumulates to S$341.5m which makes up 49% of our full year forecast. We judge this to be mostly in line with our expectations. 2Q13 topline came in at S$801.6m – marginally up 1.8% YoY versus the S$787.8m in 2Q12 – as contributions from all three segments, Property Development, Hotel Operations and Rental Properties, remained stable. The group also announced a special interim dividend of 8 S-cents per share.
Residential sale levels fairly firm
Year to date sales performances remain fairly firm, with recent launches showing healthy sell-through rates. D’Nest (912 units), Bartley Ridge (868 units) and Jewel@Buangkok (616 units) are currently 91%, 75% and 49% sold, respectively. In the second half of the year, CDL is expected to launch the 380-unit Lush Acres EC project and a mixed development at MacPherson/Upper Serangoon Rd (266 residential and 28 retail units). Hotel subsidiary Millennium and Copthorne Hotels’ (M&C) 2Q13 PATMI decreased 17.7% YoY due to challenging conditions in Singapore and Seoul and enhancement works whick took out 181k net rooms nights.
Expecting increased residential headwinds
Due to recent property curbs, the group expects stronger headwinds and moderating transaction volumes and prices in 2H13. In addition, management indicates that a situation of residential oversupply could ensue in 2014. While navigating a more onerous risk-reward landscape ahead, we believe that CDL could take a more measured approach to land-banking over FY13-14. We note that CDL currently has 1.2b sq ft GFA of attributable domestic residential land-bank versus 1.9b sq ft GFA sold in 1H13 alone which could point to a more subdued rate of sales ahead.
Maintain HOLD with lower S$11.38 fair value
Maintain HOLD with a lower fair value estimate of S$11.38 (20% RNAV disc.), versus S$12.04 previously, mainly due to a higher discount to RNAV reflecting a dimmer residential sales outlook.
CDL’s 2Q13 PATMI increased 48% YoY to S$203.8m, mostly due to disposal gains from an industrial site at 100G Pasir Panjang. 1H13 PATMI now cumulates to S$341.5m which makes up 49% of our full year forecast. We judge this to be mostly in line with our expectations. 2Q13 topline came in at S$801.6m – marginally up 1.8% YoY versus the S$787.8m in 2Q12 – as contributions from all three segments, Property Development, Hotel Operations and Rental Properties, remained stable. The group also announced a special interim dividend of 8 S-cents per share.
Residential sale levels fairly firm
Year to date sales performances remain fairly firm, with recent launches showing healthy sell-through rates. D’Nest (912 units), Bartley Ridge (868 units) and Jewel@Buangkok (616 units) are currently 91%, 75% and 49% sold, respectively. In the second half of the year, CDL is expected to launch the 380-unit Lush Acres EC project and a mixed development at MacPherson/Upper Serangoon Rd (266 residential and 28 retail units). Hotel subsidiary Millennium and Copthorne Hotels’ (M&C) 2Q13 PATMI decreased 17.7% YoY due to challenging conditions in Singapore and Seoul and enhancement works whick took out 181k net rooms nights.
Expecting increased residential headwinds
Due to recent property curbs, the group expects stronger headwinds and moderating transaction volumes and prices in 2H13. In addition, management indicates that a situation of residential oversupply could ensue in 2014. While navigating a more onerous risk-reward landscape ahead, we believe that CDL could take a more measured approach to land-banking over FY13-14. We note that CDL currently has 1.2b sq ft GFA of attributable domestic residential land-bank versus 1.9b sq ft GFA sold in 1H13 alone which could point to a more subdued rate of sales ahead.
Maintain HOLD with lower S$11.38 fair value
Maintain HOLD with a lower fair value estimate of S$11.38 (20% RNAV disc.), versus S$12.04 previously, mainly due to a higher discount to RNAV reflecting a dimmer residential sales outlook.
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