Tuesday, 14 May 2013

Thai Beverage

DBS Vickers Research, May 13
WE initiate coverage on ThaiBev with a "buy", TP: S$0.80, presenting 30 per cent total potential return upside. ThaiBev is a pure F&B company which offers investors an exposure and interesting play on the consumption trend in Thailand and the region.
ThaiBev's has an entrenched market leader position in the spirits business in Thailand, which is a significant competitive advantage. The spirits segment provides the group with stable growth and strong cashflow allowing investment into other business areas.
It is the market leader in green tea (through Oishi) and has the largest distribution network for soft drinks in Thailand allowing for quick route-to-market.
We believe ThaiBev has the potential to evolve into a credible regional F&B player over time. With its recent high profile S$3.6 billion investment in F&N (Fraser and Neave) (28.6 per cent stake), this provides a good platform to grow regionally.
We expect to see collaboration with F&N in the near/medium term. In the long term, possible restructuring and streamlining of all F&B business under ThaiBev is a possibility.
Our sum-of-parts (SOTP) is based on DCF (discounted cash flow) on its core operations, and the value of its stake in F&N. Despite its large and established position, ThaiBev is currently trading below global/regional F&B peers' PE range of 18-24x (FY14); and, we believe it should continue to re-rate and trade nearer to peers' average. Inclusion in the MSCI Singapore could also be a re-rating catalyst.
BUY

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