Wednesday, 29 May 2013

Yoma Strategic Holdings

OCBC on 28 May 2013

Yoma reported 4QFY13 PATMI of S$11.5m, up 452% YoY mostly due to a S$9.1m one-time gain. FY13 PATMI cumulates to S$14.4m and, excluding one-time gains, is judged to be generally in line with our forecast. We see the completion of the Landmark Project acquisition as a key catalyst for the share price ahead but note that management has raised the possibility of another deadline extension. That said, the signing of a Heads of Agreement with the Hong Kong and Shanghai Hotels Group and other preparations by Yoma for site development points to a good level of confidence that they would acquire the site eventually, in our view. Sales at launched projects remain firm, with 491 out of total 528 units sold in buildings 3 and 4 at Star City. In addition, management showed a strong deal-making record in FY13 and is in the midst of acquiring more land sites and establishing businesses in tourism, retail, agriculture and automobiles. Upgrade to HOLD with an increased fair value estimate of S$0.87 (20% premium to RNAV), versus S$0.71 previously, as we incorporate firmer valuations for the Landmark Project and Yoma’s existing land bank into our model.

4Q PATMI up 452% YoY due to one-time gain
Yoma reported 4QFY13 PATMI of S$11.5m, up 452% YoY mostly due to a S$9.1m one-time gain (negative goodwill recognized from the consolidation of a subsidiary in Dalian, China). FY13 PATMI cumulates to S$14.4m and, excluding one-time gains, is judged to be generally in line with our forecast. Full year top-line is S$60.5m, which increased 54% and is again within expectations, but we note much of the gross profit uplift was offset by administrative costs rising S$13.9m, mostly due to employee share compensation schemes. Management proposed a final dividend of 0.5 S-cent.

All eyes on the Landmark Project acquisition
We believe the completion of the Landmark Project acquisition in downtown Yangon is a key catalyst for the share price ahead but note that management has raised the possibility of another extension for the deadline. That said, the signing of a Heads of Agreement with the Hong Kong and Shanghai Hotels Group and other preparations by Yoma for site development points to a good level of confidence that they would acquire the site eventually, in our view. Management has also reported that they have received verbal assurance from relevant authorities that a new lease would be granted.

Strong deal-making record 
Sales at launched projects remain firm, with 491 out of total 528 units sold in buildings 3 and 4 at Star City. In addition, management showed a strong deal-making record in FY13 and is in the midst of acquiring more land sites and establishing businesses in tourism, retail, agriculture and automobiles. One significant potential kicker for shareholders is Yoma’s participation (with Digicel and Quantum Strategic Partners) in tendering for one of the two telco licenses awarded by the Myanmar authorities in Jun-13. Upgrade to HOLD with an increased fair value estimate of S$0.87 (20% premium to RNAV), versus S$0.71 previously, as we incorporate firmer valuations for the Landmark Project and Yoma’s existing land bank into our model.

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