Tuesday, 17 February 2015

CityDev

OCBC on 16 Feb 2015

CityDev reported 4Q14 PATMI of S$384.9m, up 73.4% YoY mostly due to the structured sale of cash flows in a subsidiary which owns W Singapore. FY14 PATMI cumulates to S$769.6m which forms 123% of our full year forecast and we judge this to be somewhat above expectations due to faster than anticipated progress recognition at development projects. Management reports that the South Beach project will complete in 4Q15 and ~80% of the North Tower office space has been leased out at rentals between S$10–S$12 psf pm. The group sold 1,378 residential units over FY14, down 57% YoY versus the 3,210 units sold in FY13, and will launch two projects in FY15, subject to market conditions: the first is a 638-unit EC project at Canberra Dr and the second, the 174-unit freehold condominium project (Gramercy Park) along Grange Rd. A final dividend of 8.0 S-cents and a special final dividend of 4.0 S-cents are proposed. We update our valuation model with the latest data-points from the 4Q results, and our fair value estimate increases from S$8.72 to S$9.37 (25% RNAV discount). Maintain SELL.

4Q14 PATMI up 73% YoY mainly due to structured deal boost
CityDev reported 4Q14 PATMI of S$384.9m, up 73.4% YoY mostly due to the structured sale of cash flows in a subsidiary which owns W Singapore. FY14 PATMI cumulates to S$769.6m which forms 123% of our full year forecast and we judge this to be somewhat above expectations due to faster than anticipated progress recognition at development projects. FY14 topline increased 17.1% YoY to S$3,763.9m with maiden contributions from D’Nest, Jewel@Buangkok and the Blossom Residences EC which achieved TOP over the year. The group is proposing a final dividend of 8.0 S-cents per share and a special final dividend of 4.0 S-cents; including the 4.0 S-cent interim dividend, this brings FY14 total dividends to 16.0 S-cents.

Expects residential headwinds to continue
CityDev sold 1,378 residential units over FY14, down 57% YoY versus the 3,210 units sold in FY13. Management expects to launch two projects in FY15, subject to market conditions: the first is a 638-unit EC project at Canberra Dr and the second, the 174-unit freehold condominium project (Gramercy Park) along Grange Rd. The South Beach project will complete in 4Q15 and ~80% of the North Tower office space has been leased out at rentals between S$10–S$12 psf pm. 

Hotel subsidiary M&C reports improved RevPar
The group’s hotel subsidiary M&C reported FY14 PATMI of GBP110.0m, which decreased 51% YoY mainly due to the absence of contributions from the fully-sold Glyndebourne project which was recognized in 2013. RevPar increased 2.8% YoY to GBP71.55 and 6.9% YoY in constant currency terms, given higher room rates after the renovation of hotels at Millennium Hotel Minneapolis and Grand Hyatt Taipei and the closure of the poorly performing Millennium Hotel St Louis. We update our valuation model with the latest data-points from the 4Q results, and our fair value estimate increases from S$8.72 to S$9.37 (25% RNAV discount). Maintain SELL.

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