Friday 25 January 2013

Keppel Land

OCBC on 24 Jan 2013

Keppel Land (KPLD) announced 4Q12 PATMI of S$527.3m, down 55.4% mostly due to the S$480.3m gain from the sale of stake in Ocean Financial Center in 2011. Excluding divestment gains and revaluation gains, we estimate FY12 PATMI to be S$451.5m - up 61.4% YoY and mostly within expectations. We see KPLD to be well positioned for FY13 given its strong balance sheet (S$1.6b cash, 22% net gearing), significant exposure to the Chinese property sector (35% asset exposure as of end FY12) and potential divestment gains from MBFC T3 as the asset stabilizes. Upgrade to BUY with a higher fair value estimate of S$4.53, versus S$4.06 previously, as we incorporate firmer cap rates and latest valuations of Keppel REIT.

4Q numbers mostly in line
Keppel Land (KPLD) announced 4Q12 PATMI of S$527.3m, down 55.4% mostly due to the S$480.3m gain from the sale of stake in Ocean Financial Center in 2011. Excluding divestment gains and revaluation gains, we estimate FY12 PATMI to be S$451.5m - up 61.4% YoY and mostly within expectations. FY12 topline came in at S$938.9m, down marginally (1.1%) on a YoY basis, as the lower contribution from property investments was offset by property trading and fund management. Management has recommended a final dividend of 12 S-cents.

Residential launch at Tanah Merah MRT ahead
KPLD sold 430 units in FY12, somewhat lower than the 480 units sold in FY11. We look forward to the group launching its GLS site at Tanah Merah MRT station in 2013, and estimate breakeven and selling ASP of around S$1,200 psf and S$1,300 psf, respectively. KPLD updates that MBFC T3 is now 79% committed, and anchor tenant DBS has officially opened its headquarters.

Chinese sales volume showing green shoots of recovery
We saw a pickup in KPLD’s Chinese sales in 4Q12 with 682 units sold, up 135% QoQ. Management reported a strong take-up at The Botanica Ph 7 since its launch in late Oct 12, while the Springdale and Central Park City continues to see good buyer interest. The group has also recently acquired a prime mixed-use 6.6ha site in Wuxi and is expected to develop a project with residential, SOHO and commercial components.

Upgrade to BUY with S$4.53 fair value estimate
We see KPLD to be well positioned for FY13 given its strong balance sheet (S$1.6b cash, 22% net gearing), significant exposure to the Chinese property sector (35% asset exposure as of end FY12) and potential divestment gains from MBFC T3 as the asset stabilizes. We are upgrading our rating to BUY with a higher fair value estimate of S$4.53, versus S$4.06 previously, as we incorporate firmer cap rates and latest valuations of Keppel REIT.

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