Thursday, 24 April 2014

Mapletree Logistics Trust

OCBC on 23 Apr 2014

Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT) reported 4QFY14 DPU of 1.89 S cents, up 9.2% YoY. This is in line with both our and consensus expectations. Operationally, MLT has been exhibiting resilience, as evidenced by its stable portfolio occupancy and healthy rental reversion achieved during the year. Going forward, management expects the demand for logistics facilities in its markets to remain robust, while rental reversion to stay positive. MLT also said that it will focus on driving organic and inorganic growth. We believe MLT may carry out capital recycling to partially fund the potential investments, given that it has identified a few lower yielding assets for divestment. We lift our fair value from S$1.06 to S$1.10 as we roll our valuation to FY15. However, as the stock appears fairly priced, we maintain our HOLD rating.

4QFY14 results within expectations
Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT) reported 4QFY14 gross revenue of S$80.1m and NPI of S$68.3m, up 5.7% and 4.3% YoY, respectively. The positive showing was due mainly to new income stream from Mapletree Benoi Logistics Hub, contribution from The Box Centre, and robust rental reversions from Hong Kong and Singapore. We note that NPI growth would be even stronger at 5.4%, if not for a weaker JPY. Nevertheless, the forex impact on distribution was mitigated by currency hedges. Together with lower finance costs and a distribution of S$0.6m divestment gain, DPU came in at 1.89 S cents, up 9.2% YoY. As a result, FY14 DPU totalled 7.35 S cents (+7.1%). This is in line with our DPU forecast of 7.26 S cents (consensus: 7.2 S cents).

Operational performance staying resilient
Operationally, MLT has been exhibiting resilience, as evidenced by its stable portfolio occupancy of 98.3% (3Q: 98.4%) and healthy rental reversion of 17% achieved during the year. For FY15, we note that ~18.0% of MLT’s leases will be expiring, of which 14.0% has been renewed ahead. Going forward, management expects the demand for logistics facilities in its markets to remain robust. In addition, rental reversion is expected to stay positive, albeit at a moderate pace.

Maintain HOLD on valuation grounds
MLT also reiterated its focus on driving organic growth through proactive leasing efforts and asset enhancements, such as the redevelopment of 5B Toh Guan Road East. However, unlike previous quarter, management now raises the possibility of growth through acquisition. Specifically, MLT highlighted that it has signed an MOU for a Korea-based property from a third-party vendor, and is currently performing its due diligence for potential purchase. From its sponsor’s pipeline, MLT is eyeing two China-based assets. We believe MLT may carry out capital recycling to partially fund the potential investments, given that it has identified a few lower yielding assets for divestment. We lift our fair value from S$1.06 to S$1.10 as we roll our valuation to FY15. However, as the stock appears fairly priced, we maintain our HOLD rating.

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